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Fast food isn't cheap anymore
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Nancy Luna | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
McDonald's menu prices are up about 10% this year. AdvertisementInflation may be slowing, but when it comes to skyrocketing fast-food prices, the damage is done — and there's no turning back. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that fast-food prices in October jumped 6.2% over the past 12 months. Nancy Luna/Business InsiderMore price hikes are on the horizonChipotle recently raised menu prices by 3% in October. Some are fuming over skyrocketing fast-food prices and expressing their concern on social-media platforms such as TikTok and Reddit .
Persons: That's, Chipotle, , Tim Powell, Mark Kalinowski, Nancy Luna, McDonald's, Kalinowski, Chris Kempczinski, @xconmedia, Ian Borden, Borden Organizations: Service, Starbucks, Labor Statistics Locations: QSRs, California, Orange , California, Connecticut
McDonald's said it's gaining middle- and higher-income customers, who are trading down to its menu. McDonald's expects to raise menu prices by about 10% this year — on top of a 10% increase last year. AdvertisementAdvertisementMcDonald's said Monday that customers continue to count on the chain for affordable meals, even as it raises menu prices. "Providing affordable options for our customers has always been core to McDonald's' success," Borden said. But the definition of "cheap" is changing in the face of persistent inflation — and McDonald's is far from the only restaurant chain raising prices.
Persons: McDonald's, it's, , Chris J, Kempczinski, Ian Borden, That's, Borden, Mark Kalinowski, We've Organizations: Service, Mac, XM, Black Box Intelligence Locations: Orange , California
Gavin Newsom's office, also creates a nine-person council that will decide on future wage hikes for the fast-food industry in California through 2029. The deal will mean a wage floor of $20 for California workers at fast-food chains with at least 60 locations nationwide, starting April 1. The council will include four representatives from the fast-food industry, four from the workers' side and one neutral party who will serve as chair. But the fast-food industry was attacking the bill before it even made its way to Newsom's desk. Fast-food workers employed by affected restaurants will see pay increases of as much as 25% hit their paychecks starting in April.
Persons: Mario Tama, Gavin Newsom's, Mark Kalinowski, Newsom, Joe Erlinger, Erlinger, Jan, What's, Joe Pawlak, Technomic, they'll, Joe Pawlak Technomic, Pawlak, Mary Kay Henry, it's, Sean Kennedy, Burger Organizations: Getty, Gov, Equity Research, Democrat, FAST, Yum Brands, Restaurant Brands, McDonald's, Citi Research, Service Employees International Union, SEIU, California State, CNBC, Walmart, Target, Food, National Restaurant Association, Delta Airlines, Los Angeles International Airport Locations: Boyle, Los Angeles , California, California, McDonald's U.S, Minnesota, New York,
Chick-fil-A 's fee for a new restaurant is $10,000 – one of the lowest of any major fast-food brand. In 2022, most locations average nearly $8.7 million in sales per year, up from $8.1 million a year ago, according to the chain's 2023 Franchise Disclosure Document. McDonald's, for example, requires potential franchisees to pay from $1.5 million and $2.5 million in startup costs — including a $45,000 franchise fee, according to the chain's 2023 FDD. Total costs to launch a franchised Chick-fil-A restaurant ranges from $518,385 to $2,803,435, according to the 2023 FDD documents. No transfer or sale of a Chick-fil-A business is allowed, not even family inheritance in the event of death or disability.
Persons: Mark Kalinowski, Chick, McDonald's, Noam Galai, Jay Reed Organizations: Service, Business, Taco Bell Locations: Wall, Silicon, York
Jared Fogle became Subway's pitchman after losing 245 pounds by mostly eating the chain's subs. A Fogle documentary airing in March is bad timing for Subway as it looks for a buyer, analysts say. Yet, a ghost from Subway's past, Jared Fogle, is returning to haunt America's largest sub chain. The new documentary series promises to reveal the "rise and fall" of the former Subway pitchman who "masqueraded as a national hero while hiding a horrific side." Are you a Subway insider with insight to share?
McDonald's reported double-digit sales growth for 2022, driven by a 5% increase in customer count. The brand attributed the bump to a combination of higher menu prices and unique promotions, like adult Happy Meals. The Chicago-based fast food giant reported a 10.9% increase in same-store sales for 2022, powered by a blockbuster fourth-quarter increase of 12.6%. Like many companies last year, McDonald's raised prices and widened profit margins, but that didn't deter customers. On the call, Kempczinski told investors the chain is seeing some signs of a pullback in consumer spending.
Some consumers trade down from casual-dining favorites to fast-food chains, analysts said. Analysts predicted what top publicly traded chains could do well with consumers during a recession. Typically during a recession, restaurants feel the pain first. Analysts think McDonald's, Papa Johns, Olive Garden, Taco Bell, Chipotle, and Domino's are set up for success during a recession. Analysts are undecided or mixed on brands like Starbucks, Wendy's, and Cheesecake Factory and how they might fare during a recession.
Chick-fil-A 's fee for a new restaurant is $10,000 – one of the lowest of any major fast-food brandChick-fil-A restaurants average more than $8 million in sales annually among non-mall locations. By comparison, McDonald's restaurants posted average domestic sales of $4 million in 2021, according to the chain's franchise disclosure report for 2022. McDonald's, for example, requires potential franchisees to pay from $1.4 million and $2.5 million in startup costs — including a $45,000 franchise fee. Total costs to launch a franchised Chick-fil-A restaurant ranges from $219,055 to $2,912,697, according to 2022 FDD documents. While a Chick-fil-A costs less up-front, over time franchisees end up paying a lot more to the company to operate the business.
Fast food chains are cashing in on nostalgic foods and character to draw in old and new customers. In a recession, consumers are likely to tighten their belts further, CEO and president of Kalinowski Equity Associates Mark Kalinowski told Insider. Fast food chains likely will introduce menu items "to provide the value customers want," he told Insider. The chain is explicitly promoting the new sandwich as "reigniting the chicken sandwich wars," which started with the 2019 release of the Popeyes spicy chicken sandwich. NostalgiaMcDonald'sNostalgic brands and menu items will be big in 2023, according to Yelp's predictions from data scientists and trend experts.
A Yum Brands exec said the company was "scanning categories" that don't compete with its brands. Analyst Mark Kalinowski identified 12 chains Yum Brands could target, including Sweetgreen. Habit was Yum Brands' latest acquisition — it purchased the fast-casual chain in March 2020 in a deal valued at $375 million. Zoe's Kitchen could be a buy target for Yum Brands, a veteran analyst wrote in a research note last week. "It has a market cap bigger than I would have expected, so it'd be an expensive purchase for Yum Brands."
McDonald's is taking the McRib on its fourth farewell tour. A farewell tour is more of a "call to action" than a sign the McRib will actually leave menus, an analyst said. McDonald's has held three other farewell tours for the sandwich, in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Taco Bell famously removed potatoes and the Mexican Pizza from menus only to return both within a year, saying demand for the Mexican Pizza was seven times higher after its return. When dishes like Mexican pizza or the McRib return, they already have a built-in fanbase among customers.
McDonald's praised the McRib for driving sales during an earnings call. The McRib returns to menus on October 31 for a limited time. CEO Chris Kempczinski called the sandwich, which returns to menus periodically, "the GOAT of sandwiches on our menu" in an October 27 earnings call. The chain didn't share specific McRib sales numbers from previous runs. The McRib returns to menus on October 31 for a "limited period."
But there's a way to get the most out of your rewards points. In the case of Chipotle, the fast casual chain just raised the price of a free entree reward from 1400 points to 1625 points. A similar situation happened when Dunkin rolled out its Dunkin Rewards system this fall. This is common in rewards programs across the industry, but different rewards programs have different rules. "It wouldn't surprise me if there were tweaks by other big restaurant concepts," to their rewards programs, Kalinowski said.
Starbucks and Chick-fil-A executives have said that long drive-thru lines keep away customers. Long drive-thru lines are "one of the number one reasons for not visiting Starbucks," Chief Marketing Office Brady Brewer told investors in Seattle at the company's investor day on September 13. Potential customers see the long line from the road and decide not to join, or leave from the end of the line before ordering, which is referred to as "line balk," at Starbucks, Brewer said. Chick-fil-A famously deals with the same problem, with its long lines regularly making headlines and frustrating local lawmakers and neighboring business owners. In 2021, exiting CEO Dan Cathy said how much business lines could be costing the chain.
Tim Powell, the managing principal at the consultancy Foodservice IP, said Burger King units were long overdue for modernization. But he questioned Burger King's "survival of the fittest" tactic. Jose Cil, the CEO of Burger King's Restaurant Brands International, said the turnaround plan was directed at lifting sales for all restaurants. "All of that will lead to an output which is increased traffic, increased sales, increased restaurant-level profitability, and growth for the brand, from a systemwide sales standpoint. US sales at Burger King increased nearly 4% in 2021.
Starbucks and Chick-fil-A executives have said that long drive-thru lines keep away customers. Long drive-thru lines are "one of the number one reasons for not visiting Starbucks," Chief Marketing Office Brady Brewer told investors in Seattle at the company's investor day on September 13. Potential customers see the long line from the road and decide not to join, or leave from the end of the line before ordering, which is referred to as "line bulk," at Starbucks, Brewer said. Chick-fil-A famously deals with the same problem, with its long lines regularly making headlines and frustrating local lawmakers and neighboring business owners. In 2021, exiting CEO Dan Cathy said how much business lines could be costing the chain.
Burger King unveiled a $400 million "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround plan last week. Burger King's $400 million "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround plan calls for upgrading 800 of the company's top restaurants, a "Darwinian" move that could hurt hundreds of poor-performing locations left without financial support, analysts say. Tim Powell, the managing principal at the consultancy Foodservice IP, said Burger King units were long overdue for modernization. Jose Cil, the CEO of Burger King's Restaurant Brands International, said the turnaround plan was directed at lifting sales for all restaurants. "All of that will lead to an output which is increased traffic, increased sales, increased restaurant-level profitability, and growth for the brand, from a systemwide sales standpoint.
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